UK General Election 2024: Purpose Union’s Briefing Note
On July 5th Keir Starmer became Prime Minister, leading Labour back into power after a 14 year period of Conservative-led government. His first speech promised a period of “national renewal” delivered by “action not words” but also “stability and moderation”.
Along with a historic showing for the Liberal Democrats, the coming parliamentary term looks set to be dominated from the centre ground. But the election has also given a new voice in parliament to parties to the left and right, which the government will have to navigate. This note looks at the events that gave rise to this outcome and considers how they will influence politics, business and culture in the coming years.
What happened
Former PM Rishi Sunak surprised many - including within his own party - by announcing a snap election hoping to seize the initiative and turn around a persistent polling deficit. From the rain-soaked announcement to his premature D-Day Departure and the betting scandal, whatever meagre hopes existed of a Tory fight back did not materialise.
Labour, by contrast, were relentlessly focused and ran a campaign largely without unforced errors. They banked seats in their usual urban bases and instead ran a campaign targeted at swing voters in marginals. For the most part, the strategy paid off handsomely - though a handful of seats were lost to the Greens or Independents pushing more radical policies on the environment and Gaza. The SNP collapse in Scotland further enhanced Labour gains, while the Lib Dem’s best performance ever drove the Conservative vote down further. On a low turnout, the electorate used their votes to punish the Tories and give Keir Starmer an opportunity to restore some faith in politics.
What it means
A Labour Party hungry to return to power and with a huge parliamentary majority has wasted no time in realigning the political vibes of the country. Starmer’s first Cabinet is virtually unchanged from his frontbench in opposition. But the surprise announcement of several non-party political experts into science, prison, legal and climate portfolios marked a clear dividing line with the personality politics of recent years.
The PM has also wasted no time hard-wiring his five missions - growth, green power, crime, health and education - into the operations of his new administration. He will personally chair Cabinet-level committees on each. First week announcements on a national wealth fund, reversing the on-shore wind ban, establishing a new border security command and a reset with the medical unions suggest that contrary to the election attack lines, Starmer did have a bit of a plan all along.
Whether such relentless focus can be maintained remains to be seen but it is clear for the early part of this government at least, there will be little political bandwidth for issues not in service of mission government. Nonetheless, we try to look a little further out to see how some core issues will evolve across the coming parliamentary term.
The Issues
Business
On the first Monday after the election, it was standing room only at the Labour in the City event. The shift in mood was lost on nobody with many referring back to “the bad old days” when a gulf opened up between Labour and the private sector. Starmer and Rachel Reeve’s high profile courting of the business sector was a key part of efforts to show the party was changing.
Notably, it was Jonny Reynolds, the new Business Secretary, who was sent out to represent the government for its first Sunday morning media round. Reynolds described himself during the election as a Christian socialist, and in this we may get a hint of a higher purpose Labour has in mind for its relationship with business. While his intray may be dominated by potential crises at Tata Steel and Thames Water, he is also looking longer term to see how the new government can enlist business as a partner in Labour’s wider project of national renewal.
The transactional days of the previous administration are over and Labour will be looking for partners in the private sector that can bring a defined and credible social purpose. An early test of this will be how business responds as Labour begins to implement its new deal for working people.
DEI and social issues
“The era of culture wars is over”, said Lisa Nandy in her speech to officials as she unexpectedly found herself taking the helm at the Department of Culture after the shadow incumbent in that role lost her seat to the Greens, in part due to culture wars. We believe that the heat around these issues will certainly reduce, opening up space for businesses to be bolder in their approaches. However, it is worth noting that in the few days since the election we’ve had Suella Braverman, JK Rowling and Nigel Farage MP launch shots across the Labour bow on trans rights, immigration and general wokery.
But the terrain has been altered. The feedback loop between the tabloids, the back benches of the Tory party and No 10 has been cut. As we have written previously, our research shows the voting coalition that has brought Labour to power expects institutions to take a stand on the environment and racial, gender and economic inequality. With siren voices on the right now firmly embedded in the UK’s parliamentary democracy, this will require thoughtful engagement rather than sloganeering. Perhaps more than any area, this is where Starmers “actions not words” approach will matter and there is space now for organisations to reaffirm their commitments to equality and match it with the right initiatives.
It’s worth noting as well that this is the most diverse parliament in history, with more women, ethnic minority and LGBTQ+ members than ever. Meanwhile the Cabinet is led by a group of politicians with a far more humble background than the preceding one. With politics now looking a bit more like the rest of us, the hope is it will start talking and acting like it too.
Climate change and the environment
Ed Miliband’s normally broad smile was even wider than usual as he arrived at the Department for Net Zero. He’s back where he belongs, saving the planet. After Rishi Sunak briefly punctured the broad national consensus on climate change, normal order is being resumed. Though it may no longer be committing to spending £28 billion annually on green pledges, early signals are strong that Labour means business. The launch of the National Wealth Fund had a distinctly green tinge. In Chris Stark, Labour has appointed a strict headmaster to mark its homework in its race to decarbonise the power grid by 2030.
Perhaps even more interestingly, polling by our friends at More in Common showed that the Tories’ anti-green tilt was a spectacular electoral own-goal (one of many). Miniscule numbers of Reform backers cast their votes based on climate policy, while box loads of votes went to the Lib Dems and Labour because of the dissatisfaction at sewage leaks.
Labour will have its own green challenges. Many are still sceptical it will be able to unlock the investment needed for a just transition. Climate and nature campaigners cheer the commitment to windpower and decarbonising the grid, but worry about the environmental impacts of loosening planning regulations. While voters have given Labour a green mandate, it will have to work hard to ensure that difficult changes in the transition away from a fossil fuel economy don’t harm those with the least resources to adapt. This same approach will need to be adopted on the global stage too, where Labour has signalled it will restore the UK to a leadership position in climate diplomacy, and not a moment too soon.
International
The world was a very different place as David Miliband, the last Labour Foreign Secretary, left office. Putin was a paid up member of the G8. The Paris Climate Agreement had not been achieved. The UK was at the heart of EU efforts to recover from the economic crash. And a young, newish Barack Obama was reconnecting the US with the rest of the world.
Reconnecting is now the order of the day under Labour’s latest Foreign Secretary David Lammy. With his new seal of office tucked in his hand luggage, he was already on the plane for a whistle stop tour of European capitals on day one. And much has been made of the pre-positioning Labour has already been doing to prepare for the outcome of the US election later in the year. While Starmer will enjoy his time with Biden at the NATO Summit, he will also be careful to reach across the aisle and meet with Republican leadership.
There will be some continuity with the outgoing government. Labour has already committed to staying the course in backing Ukraine. There’s little appetite in the early stages of the administration for doing anything to unpick the current Brexit settlement, aside from some technical discussions on veterinary standards and youth mobility. The approach instead will be to thaw relationships and look for pragmatic opportunities to improve cooperation when the new EU institutions are up and running in November. Ukraine and security issues again will likely be the bridge.
Where things should really change is in the rest of the world. Labour has promised a reset with the Global South. The Conservatives’ evisceration of DFID and the aid budget has weakened relationships, leaving little for the UK to offer in parts of the world where populations and economies are growing and reshaping geopolitics. With the US and the EU looking inward for the foreseeable future, this is where the action is happening on climate, trade and global cooperation.
It’s not just the UK where politics is changing.
Purpose Union works with organisations to drive change, maximising their impact through innovative partnerships and creative campaigns at the intersection of business, politics and culture. If you’d like to find out more about how we could help your organisation, see our advocacy services or please get in touch.