2023 must be the year of the renter

From Jade Azim, Associate Director for Advocacy at Purpose Union.

As data from the 2021 census has trickled in this month, the shape of modern Britain has become clearer. None more so than the map of British housing. The data into 2021 tenures, released last week, is no surprise to renters: the private rented sector is now megasized with 5 million households privately renting, as the dream of the home owning democracy dwindles. Renters, who have suffered at the hands of a market so hot that bidding wars are now the norm, could have told you about this explosion if only someone had asked.

Unfortunately, up until now, British politics has rarely asked them, protecting homeowners and housing prices at all costs - even if it means maintaining a bubble that has threatened to burst more times than the government has changed Prime Minister. But the economics and politics of this decrepit sector now demands of politicians to listen to this constituency. 2023 must be the year of the renter.

As it stands, the private rented sector functions as a wild west, leaving its subjects at the mercy of unregulated forces quite unlike any other market. Bidding wars, dramatic rent increases, homes unfit for habitation and short tenancies have upended millions of lives. It has led to the arrested development for a cohort of young adults who find themselves living with parents or housemates well into their thirties.

Reform of this settlement makes enormous economic sense. These 5 million households, subject to these conditions, have less spending power. In some cases, particularly in cities like London, renters are spending more than a third of their income on rent. This, in turn, poses critical questions for the future of the UK economy - not least local economies that rely on working consumers or their potential to save for those huge housing deposits that prevent escape.

Perhaps more significant in the long-term is that renters are less able to settle and raise families in their communities. The Assured Shorthold Tenancy which typically offers six months to one year, introduced in the 1988 Housing Act, has birthed unstable tenures quite unlike anything else in Europe. Elsewhere, Section 21 still threatens renters with no-fault evictions at almost any time.

But significantly, more than ever, reform makes political sense. Not only is the sector growing according to this census data, but new FT data also revealed millennials, who are far and away the most likely to rent or begin renting, are soon to usurp baby boomers as the largest voter base in the UK. The data also revealed that, in part due to the housing crisis, young people have broken the old adage of growing more conservative as they get older. If the central question of our politics becomes ‘why would those without capital and at the unregulated mercy of its hoarders believe in capitalism?’, the Conservatives face an existential challenge.

What can the Government do to turn this tide? Central to all of this is the fate of the Renters’ Reform Bill, which promises significant and lauded reforms to the sector but is still subject to the whims and threats of lobbyists and backbenchers. The Bill, spearheaded by Michael Gove, is not the be all and end all - but is nonetheless a welcome start for campaigners. It includes sweeping reforms such as an end to Section 21, longer notice periods, new freedoms for tenants, and restricting rent increases to once per annum. Its passage, or lack thereof, will be a good test to see if the Conservative Party is relevant for this newly behemoth constituency. It will also be a test of the Opposition to strengthen the Bill. And if the Bill falls entirely, this constituency is all but the Opposition’s to take.

2023 must be the year renters are prioritised in Westminster. If they are not, the long term consequences for policymakers will be considerable. If it is not the economic they concern themselves with - then it ought to be the political.

Jade is a public affairs and campaigns specialist with experience from across the third sector, private sector and Westminster, having previously worked for a Shadow Secretary of State and across numerous general and leadership elections.

She now uses this expertise to secure success for organisations in influencing the political agenda and national conversation. Contact jade.azim@purposeunion.com to find out more.